decision making Archives - Page 2 of 2

31
Jul 17
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Data Driven Decisions or Emotional Choices?

Tags : anchoring data decision making leadership

Many professionals look to the data to help make decisions. Data is important and critical for executives, scientists, and engineers. How does data affect your business? Are data driven decisions used or is it more based on emotions?

I remember sitting in a community college classroom in the mid-1980’s, our instructor challenged our thinking with a concept. “If you travel 8 to 10 miles per hour over the speed limit coming from fewer than 20 miles away will you arrive at class earlier?”

Most quickly suggested that, yes, you would. The instructor pushed for additional thinking about stop signs, streetlights, and even the possibility of waiting for a train that crosses near the entrance.

We live in a world of data. Data that might make a difference or it might not.

Powerful Numbers

Two pieces of hand sliced bread, three apples from the produces section at the market, or a coffee refill by the wait staff at your favorite breakfast spot. Which bread slice is bigger, which apple weighs the most, or did I get the most ounces coffee for my money?

Millions of people play the lottery even though the chances of winning are known to be very small.

Data is important but it might not tell the entire story.

Do you use data to make decisions? Nearly everyone does. Are you anchored to that data? Is the data accurate? Does a single number provide the guidance or is it more about a trend?

Data is probably important for decisions, but it doesn’t mean that people will make smart choices.

Emotions Sometimes Drive

The feeling of faster, bigger, and most value for your dollar is important. So is feeling lucky.

Consider though that all of those are about feelings and emotions. Fitting data to your emotions is commonplace. It might be easy to find an example.

What about the average, mean, or statistical probability, do any of those prove your choice will be the best?

Data Driven Decisions

Trends and probabilities are probably better than any single number.

Data designed to fit or provided as proof is probably not a trend.

Be careful of data, it might be guided by hope and emotions.

One number matters much less than the trend.

– DEG

Dennis E. Gilbert is a business consultant, speaker (CSP^TM), and corporate trainer that specializes in helping businesses and individuals accelerate their leadership, their team, and their success. He is a four-time author and some of his work includes, Forgotten Respect, Navigating A Multigenerational Workforce and Pivot and Accelerate, The Next Move Is Yours! Reach him through his website at Dennis-Gilbert.com or by calling +1 646.546.5553.

Dennis Gilbert on Google+

01
Feb 17
2

Anchored Decisions and Getting Unstuck

Tags : anchors decision making leadership problem solving

Do you make anchored decisions? As people we often consciously or subconsciously make decisions based on data. The data that we develop trust in, belief, and view as reliable might be the exact thing that keeps us stuck.

Imagine for a moment that you are sitting in a nearby coffee shop that also operates a drive-through service for coffee, doughnuts, bagels, and breakfast sandwiches. While sipping your favorite morning beverage you observe many cars using the drive through service.

Next imagine that a friend enters the same coffee shop where you are sitting. Your friend tells you that the drive through service is jammed with cars every morning and then asks, “Guess how many cars pass through before 10:00 AM?”

Before you can answer, your friend says, “Normally around 350!”

Since you’re business minded (you are, right?) you start thinking about the average purchase per car. You consider a cup of coffee, a doughnut, bagel, or sandwich, some will buy more, some less, and sometimes there is more than one person per car. You establish a simple estimate of $10.00.

The coffee shop opens at 6:00 AM and your friend told you 350 (the anchor) cars pass through. You’ve estimated $10.00 per car and when you do the math you get $3,500.00 of drive through business by 10:00AM. Does this seem reasonable?

Anchored Decisions

How we make decisions, personally or professionally is often impacted by the data set that we observe, read about, or look up on the web. It might also be influenced by word-of-mouth, a sign, or an advertisement. The data might be very accurate or the data might be unreliable.

Imagine the scenario just presented only this time imagine that the real number of cars passing through is closer to 150. So the drive through is only bringing in, on average, around $1,500.00 of revenue during this period of time. This is a significant difference, it is $2,000.00 less!

So what does all of this mean to you?

It’s quite simple actually. As a living breathing, walking, talking, and thinking human being you make anchored decisions. You do it, and I do it, everybody does it.

Anchoring Applied

Imagine you get a new corporate account in your sales job. You look up the history of the account and you discover that last year they purchased $100,000.00 worth of product. What are they going to purchase this year? What is your best guess and you must give an answer.

Chances are good you’ll anchor to that $100k and you might guess $110k, or maybe go big with $125k. You goal becomes to sell them $125k, but perhaps in reality they might have the potential to be a $500k account. You’re going to miss out on a lot of business.

Now imagine this, you hear that the average dinner for two in your hometown costs $45.00, you hear that the average family of four spends $180.00 per week at the local grocery market, and the average price of a new pair of shoes is $75.00.

What will you spend when going out to eat or going shopping? What will you anchor to? Certainly you would likely base your estimates on the averages, and this of course seems reasonable, but what if it isn’t?

Get Unstuck

Anchored decisions often represent the way people (or businesses) become stuck. They limit their thinking, they use the data set, they listen to what others suggest or recommend.

What are the limits for you personally? Are you average, or slightly better? Where do you want to be? What is the data?

If you own a business, what was your revenue last year? What numbers are competitors turning in each year? How much can you sell or how much can you earn?

If you are a supervisor, manager, or other professional that is charged with leading in your organization how are you anchoring your department or team? Are you stuck with the same numbers or other data?

When you consider the anchors we might use, you just might realize how you got stuck.

Get unstuck.

– DEG

Dennis Gilbert on Google+

29
Nov 16
3

Leadership and the Danger of False Perceptions

Tags : decision making leadership perception self-deception

One of the most difficult aspects of working with others might be when their perception of a situation is completely different from the popular opinion of reality. In leadership roles, this can be career stalling and occasionally career ending.

Having a formal leadership role in an organization can be a very tough spot. Of course, many people desire and work very hard to achieve the level of excellence required to not only obtain the formal role, but also to demonstrate exceptional leadership qualities.

Few people would argue that confidence is a necessary leadership competency but in some cases confidence can go too far. Has your confidence ever limited your ability to lead? How do you know?

False Perceptions

Leaders can and often do develop blind spots, sometimes to the extent that they fail to see anything but what they believe. After all, their experience is vast and they are certain of their choices, decision making skills, and even the self-assessment of their performance.

This is where the trouble begins, but often not where it ends. Leaders who are so locked in and determined (confident) of a situation or circumstance that they fail to see options or consider alternative directions sometimes make the worst decisions. Let’s face it sometimes our decisions or recommendations just don’t align with the popular opinion and that can make us either a hero, or as some might suggest a zero.

The biggest problem with all of this is when you believe that you are right and everyone else is wrong. Or worse, you ask some of your friends or direct reports and they tell you what you want to hear, but not what the truth is.

Warning Signs

Every situation is different. Different types of businesses, different people or issues, and different places in time can all affect the most probable outcomes of any situation, but how do you know if you have some false perception issues?

Consider some of these warning signs:

You feel overlooked when new challenges or opportunities are presented and you are not selected for the role or consulted in the matter.
You’ve received feedback that during high stress situations you are unapproachable.
When discussing strategic direction you often feel two steps ahead and are very frustrated with others slowing the progress.
Team members don’t share information when they should. You often only learn of an issue when it is near disaster.
You select employees for tough assignments based on those who are perceived as easy to get along with or those who will go with the flow.

Before you quickly suggest that none of this fits you, I urge you to think through this carefully. These warning signs are often discovered near the root of blind-spot problems and it only takes one to qualify.

Solutions

Leaders often face challenges of false perceptions and self-deception. Through my business practice I have frequently discovered these issues and sometimes I’m called upon to help coach leaders to overcome these challenges. The toughest part is typically getting the person or persons involved to actually believe there is an issue.

Considering this, taking the first step towards a solution exists when those involved are willing to face the problems.

In 2010, I was fortunate that some of my work in this area was published in the book, The 2010 Pfeiffer Annual : Training (pages 97-106), and is available for purchase on-line. If you are concerned about false perceptions and self-deception or if you are charged with helping someone through these experiences this resource provides a great tool to get started.

– DEG

Dennis Gilbert on Google+

09
Nov 16
4

Do You Value Risk?

Tags : comfort zone decision making risk safety

Do you take risks? Some people might be identified as risk taking enthusiasts. You have people who are extreme sport athletes, those who might drive a little fast on the highway, and those who take a risk at the casino. They might value risk and assuming you are not in one of those categories, do you value it?

Sure some risk might get your juices flowing, make you feel alive, and if you end up on the right side of the risk you’ll likely feel very happy. Life changing results may come about because of risk, and these results might be positive or they might set you back in an undesirable way.

What about a decisions for self-improvement or a decision to tackle a big project at work? What about speaking up during an uncomfortable situation or offering an idea that you know the boss will not agree with? Do you see any value in taking such risks?

A couple of well-known leadership authors, James M. Kouzes and Barry Z. Posner, released a training activity book in 2010 titled, The Leadership Challenge, Activities Book, it was edited by the highly admired and very talented, Elaine Biech. I was fortunate to contribute to that book through one of my training activities titled, Take A Risk! (pgs. 217 – 227). This activity appeared in the chapter titled, Challenge the Process. It’s a great book for those who are interested in activities related to leadership development. The reason I’m mentioning it is because it helps build credibility to the idea that value exists in taking reasonable and well calculated risk. Sometimes we have to challenge the process, at least according to some mainstream theories.

Recently I wrote a blog post about the concept of having reasonable expectations and of course the word reasonable might be considered to be very subjective. Later, a friend challenged some of my thinking by asking if this concept might create self-limiting beliefs. A good question I believe, and one that is important for anyone seeking change.

Here are a few of my beliefs about reasonable and calculated risk.

We should,

value risk
take reasonable risk
be calculated about our risk
expand our comfort zone
recognize that there is risk in safety.

Most of this bullet list is self-explanatory, but let me just provide an additional comment about risk as it relates to safety. Many people live their life by playing it very (or totally) safe. Each person has their own style and comfort associated with risk and the results they achieve. However, there is one fallacy in the concept of playing it safe. The fallacy is that playing it safe, taking very limited or no risk is perhaps one of the riskiest positions you can take. We are living in a world of rapid and constant change, if you are not changing, if you are not stepping away from your comfort zone, you are likely falling behind.

What calculated risks have you taken lately? What risk opportunity did you walk away from that you should have taken?

Risk is part of your growth, or not.

Take some!

– DEG

Dennis E. Gilbert is a business consultant, speaker (CSP^TM), and coach that specializes in helping businesses and individuals accelerate their leadership, their team, and their success. He is the author of the newly released book, Forgotten Respect, Navigating A Multigenerational Workforce. Reach him through his website at Dennis-Gilbert.com or by calling +1 646.546.5553.

Dennis Gilbert on Google+

02
Nov 16
4

Are Your Decisions Based On Instinct Or Gut Feel?

Tags : critical thinking decision making decisions instincts

Have you ever asked your family what they would like to eat for dinner and no one can decide? We make a lot of decisions every day, but sometimes we have to consult something inside ourselves to feel like we’re making the best choice. Do you believe that those decisions are based on instinct or are they more of a gut feel?

We’ve all faced tough choices and sometimes we just don’t know who to ask in order to gain additional insight. Sometimes we ask others who we know will most likely answer one way or another, and we do that to improve our confidence or to feel better about a tough choice. In other situations we might avoid asking someone we know because we believe they will give an answer that deep inside we really don’t want to hear.

Have you ever asked someone, “What does your gut tell you?”

Instinct

Instinct, as being referenced here and perhaps by formal definition is connecting your thoughts to what comes natural or feels natural with some specific direction for a choice. It can be illustrated by considering something simple, for example, when you feel hungry you might make a choice to eat. Another example could be when you hear (hearing is instinctual) someone speaking you make a choice to listen, or not.

Gut Feel

Gut feel is different because it might suggest that there are other factors involved in making the decision or choice. Sometimes these factors are conditioned by emotions and because we have feelings connected with those factors we label that decision as coming from having a gut feel. Some people may associate the concept of gut feel to the idea of following your head, or your heart.

Business Case

Imagine you’re at your job and you’re confronted with a tough choice. You may have ethical concerns, integrity complications, or you worry that the choice you make could in some way affect the future for yourself or the organization. Will you make the decision based on instinct or gut feel? In business many believe that you should leave your emotions out of it. Business is business and there is not any room for emotional issues. However, much of the business that we do is strongly based on emotional choices. We do something because we believe in it, we have passion about it, and it makes us feel good. I see a lot of emotion connected with business and that doesn’t necessarily make it bad.

Critical Thinking

When we are facing tough choices it is often helpful for us to think more critically, analyze the data, deal with facts, and look for patterns. Some people like to expedite decisions while others prefer to drag them out, over analyze, or procrastinate. Sometimes if we ask what led to the final decision someone will say they used their instincts to guide the choice, or they did it by gut feel.

Decisions based on what we might label as instinct or gut feel are often very risky choices. People can sometimes develop strong beliefs based on perception or data that is not accurate. As people we collect more life experiences, some of them good, and some of them not so good. Over time we start to trend that data, based specifically on our own life experiences. Sometimes this data becomes associated with what might be labeled as instinct or gut feel.

What about you, how do you make tough choices?

– DEG

Dennis Gilbert on Google+

Newer posts→

Tag Archives: decision making

Jul 17

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Powerful Numbers

Emotions Sometimes Drive

Data Driven Decisions

Feb 17

Anchored Decisions

Anchoring Applied

Get Unstuck

Nov 16

Nov 16

Nov 16

Instinct

Gut Feel

Business Case

Critical Thinking

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